The heated rivalry between two of the most highly-regarded boxers of this generation hopes to find a worthy conclusion with Canelo vs Golovkin III. 

Live streamed by DAZN from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on September 17, this fight looks to settle the score of what’s been a dubious rivalry, to say the least. 

Few would disagree that Gennady “GGG” Golovkin (42-1-1) was robbed in the first fight, with it going to a split-decision draw due to one judge’s heinous swing toward the Mexican pugilist.

The second fight was delayed due to Saul “Canelo” Álvarez (57-2-2) testing positive twice over for performance-enhancing banned substances. 

When the fight did take place, it was closer, but the mixed-decision loss for the Kazakh could have easily been another draw had two of the judges scored the 12th as most pundits and onlookers did – in favour of Golovkin. 

Now, a 40-year-old Golovkin looks to finally get an official win in a rivalry that’s on the record as 1-0-1 in favour of Canelo, but what do the boxing odds make of this rumble for the ages?

Canelo vs Golovkin III betting odds

  • Canelo to win (-567)

  • Golovkin to win (+390)

  • Fight to Go the Distance: Yes (-175)

  • Fight to End in Rounds 7-9 (+460)

Bookies heavily favour Canelo to beat Golovkin

Starting at 8 pm ET, with the main event tentatively set for 12 am ET, history dictates that this will be a close fight, but that hasn’t stopped the odds from running away in favour of the Mexican for Canelo vs Golovkin III. 

Álvarez is very clearly the choice of the oddsmakers, all the way out at -567 to win. GGG is the outright underdog at +390 to win, but this is understandable given the hype and build-up around Canelo since they last fought. 

Much like Floyd Mayweather Jr. often did once he rose to become Las Vegas’ star attraction, Canelo has been able to cherry-pick his fights.

Timing his schedule to perfection, he’s been able to catch any potential competitors at shorter notice and gain a slight advantage on top of his immense talent.

This time, Canelo’s looking to step down from light heavyweight back to super middleweight after the resounding defeat – regardless of what the scorecards say – to the heavy underdog Dmitry Bivol just four months ago.

Golovkin has had an additional month to prepare, moving up from middleweight to super middleweight for the first time since obliterating Steve Rolls after Canelo vs Golovkin II – making a point to his rival as the Mexican moved up to 168 after their second bout. 

Few would deny that super middleweight is where Canelo has looked the most comfortable and formidable, being able to take more hits while gradually hunting down his prey – as he did against Caleb Plant. 

Golovkin was well-known for his punching power, and while few can escape his iron jab unscathed, the power has, naturally, faded in recent years.

A step up to super-middleweight should add a bit of that whack back. Plus, moving up in weight is far, far less strenuous than cutting down.


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What will the Canelo vs Golovkin III result be, per the odds?

As has been the case in each of the last two Canelo vs Golovkin fights, the odds say that this will be decided by the judges, with -175 for yes and +120 for no in the Fight to Go the Distance market. 

From there, Canelo is -105 to win on points or +170 to win within the rounds. GGG, on the other hand, is a long-shot +850 to win by KO, TKO, DQ, or technical decision, and +560 to win on points

The odds favour the scorecards for Canelo, but in the event of a win within the rounds, later rounds are preferred. The oddsmakers put the fight to end in Rounds 7-9 at +460, the narrow favourite in the market bar To Go the Distance. 

Make no mistake about it, as supremely talented as he is, Canelo is a protected fighter – especially in Las Vegas – and on top of that, reigning champions tend to get the nod in close rounds. This helps to swing the odds in his favour.

Still, GGG is out to set the record straight, and all of the greats have one barnburner of a performance left in them before they’re completely done. The way that the two have been boxing of late may also play into Golovkin’s destructive hands. 

Canelo, who would once dazzle by putting on defensive master classes first and foremost, has morphed into more of a crowd-pleasing, seek-and-destroy boxer: such is his historic dominance over the division.

The results have been superb to watch, but there appear to be more openings now.

He still has the slick upper-body movement in his locker, but most bouts at super-middleweight have seen him go chin down, prowling forward, taking licks before unloading precise, echoing thuds to the body and head.

Golovkin hasn’t always been given credit for his supreme boxing IQ, with the thunderous overhands and subsequent knockouts catching him headlines as a pure puncher, but the reason why he’s so devastating is because he knows exactly when to fire for maximum impact. 

The Kazakh is in the thinking that he out-boxed Álvarez in Canelo vs Golovkin I and II, and could put in another cool performance, highlighted by heavy hits and letting a fair few returns bounce off of his iron chin while Canelo tries to force the agenda.

Rivalries tend to bring the best out of the two pugilists, especially one as mired in controversy as Canelo vs Golovkin.

Now, the score will hopefully be settled. Even though Álvarez is the heavy favourite, it’d be foolish to count out his 40-year-old foe just yet.

*Credit for all images in this article belongs to AP Photo*


FIRST PUBLISHED: 16th September 2022

Ben is very much a sports nerd, being obsessed with statistical deep dives and the numbers behind the results and performances.

Top of the agenda are hockey, soccer, and boxing, but there's always time for the NFL, cricket, Formula One, and a bit of mixed martial arts.